What East Africa will look like in 2030 and 2050; numbers don't lie!

Cicero said:
Tim Choice GDP per capita estimates for that period pia zipo. Hizi hapa ili uache kujificha behind 'per capita'
Kenya - $4215
Tanzania - $4070
And that's just for 2020.
Imagine za 2030 au 2050 tukishawapita?
Click to expand...
Kwani Kenya tutakuwa tunalala??

Everyone is finishing university and starting a business ...

Mtakaa nyuma yetu mpaka mpende
 
Any projection beyond 5yrs, more so for developing countries is utter bollocks. Wajua vile hizo predictions hufanywa? They simply take the current growth rate and using compound interest feed in a figure like say 10yrs na wanapata jibu Lao. Hebu jiulize, was Tanzania's 2015 growth rate same as this year's estimated growth rate?
 
Projections are based on current economic growth and current GDP...
Kenya is growing at 5.something and Tanzania is growing at 7.something .....
such projections ate assuming all the economies growth will remain the same up to 2060.... so in other words the projection are saying if kenya were to grow at 5% and tanzania at 7% then it will take 39 years for tanzania economy to supurs kenya's.....
But lots of things can change in just 10 years leave alone 39, growth rates can change withing few years,

After the POV in 2007, tanzania was projected to supurse kenya by 2025 after kenyas economy shrank and was growing at 3% when tanzania was 8%, but as we can see now that wont happen.
Kenya is projected to become newly industrialised economy by 2025-2030, when that happens the economy will probably be nearing 8-9% growth, after the SGR starts working its expected to add atleast 1% growth to anuall economic growth.....

I will do my own projections based on different economic growths and post them here for you to see
 
All u need to know about Kenya and Tanzania

1486447329686.png


Greee and Turkey Like Kenya and Tanzania are Neighbours

Greece is in The EU
Turkey is not

Greece Received more tourist than Turkey

Turkey like Kenya is surrounded by
Iraq
Syria

Kenya Is surrounded by
Somalia
Sudan
Ethiopia

Turkish Kurdish people want independence and have been waging wars with Turkish govt

There have been atleast 1200 deaths within Turkey since ISIS took over Syria and Iraq

There have been atleast 987 deaths within Kenya since Alshabaab Took Somalia

2006
Tanzanias GDP 11bn$
KENYAS GDP 17bn$


2017
Tanzanias GDP 46bn$
Kenyas GDP 71bn$

Moral of this story
THE GAP IS WIDENING MKIKAA HAPO DAY DREAMING FOOLS
 
Sammuel999 said:
All u need to know about Kenya and Tanzania

View attachment 467979

Greee and Turkey Like Kenya and Tanzania are Neighbours

Greece is in The EU
Turkey is not

Greece Received more tourist than Turkey

Turkey like Kenya is surrounded by
Iraq
Syria

Kenya Is surrounded by
Somalia
Sudan
Ethiopia

Turkish Kurdish people want independence and have been waging wars with Turkish govt

There have been atleast 1200 deaths within Turkey since ISIS took over Syria and Iraq

There have been atleast 987 deaths within Kenya since Alshabaab Took Somalia

2006
Tanzanias GDP 11bn$
KENYAS GDP 17bn$


2017
Tanzanias GDP 46bn$
Kenyas GDP 71bn$

Moral of this story
THE GAP IS WIDENING MKIKAA HAPO DAY DREAMING FOOLS
Click to expand...

Usisahau hapo mwanzoni uchumi wa Tz na wakenya zilikua sawa
 
Kafrican said:
Projections are based on current economic growth and current GDP...
Kenya is growing at 5.something and Tanzania is growing at 7.something .....
such projections ate assuming all the economies growth will remain the same up to 2060.... so in other words the projection are saying if kenya were to grow at 5% and tanzania at 7% then it will take 39 years for tanzania economy to supurs kenya's.....
But lots of things can change in just 10 years leave alone 39, growth rates can change withing few years,

After the POV in 2007, tanzania was projected to supurse kenya by 2025 after kenyas economy shrank and was growing at 3% when tanzania was 8%, but as we can see now that wont happen.
Kenya is projected to become newly industrialised economy by 2025-2030, when that happens the economy will probably be nearing 8-9% growth, after the SGR starts working its expected to add atleast 1% growth to anuall economic growth.....

I will do my own projections based on different economic growths and post them here for you to see
Click to expand...
Good analysis.
By the time the IMF or PwC release such statistics I doubt that they would be so dumb as to consider only the prevailing economic situation. I am sure powerful statistical methods are employed that factor in growth statistics from the past as well.
Also, considering that AfDB and Standard Chartered independently said something also to that effect, i am forced to believe that Tanzania surpassing Kenya is no longer a matter of if but when. Our GDP PPP is already set to surpass Kenya's before 2020 (saiv it is just a heartbeat behind Kenya's) na hiyo nominal GDP ndio tutakimbizana mpaka 2050s or sooner who knows!
 
Sammuel999 said:
All u need to know about Kenya and Tanzania

View attachment 467979

Greee and Turkey Like Kenya and Tanzania are Neighbours

Greece is in The EU
Turkey is not

Greece Received more tourist than Turkey

Turkey like Kenya is surrounded by
Iraq
Syria

Kenya Is surrounded by
Somalia
Sudan
Ethiopia

Turkish Kurdish people want independence and have been waging wars with Turkish govt

There have been atleast 1200 deaths within Turkey since ISIS took over Syria and Iraq

There have been atleast 987 deaths within Kenya since Alshabaab Took Somalia

2006
Tanzanias GDP 11bn$
KENYAS GDP 17bn$


2017
Tanzanias GDP 46bn$
Kenyas GDP 71bn$

Moral of this story
THE GAP IS WIDENING MKIKAA HAPO DAY DREAMING FOOLS
Click to expand...
Kenya nominal GDP - $63 billion
Tanzania GDP nominal- $48 billion
 
Cicero said:
Kenya nominal GDP - $63 billion
Tanzania GDP nominal- $48 billion
Click to expand...
Last year october 7 2016 IMF released an article Showing how Ethiopia for the second time had surpassed kenya

At 2015 Ethiopia had a 61.12bn$ economy

Kenya had a 63.54bn$ economy well

Below are facts served hot

From The Ethiopian press

1486474411475.png

1486474426456.png


For years, reporters writing about Ethiopia's neighbor Kenya refer to it as the biggest economy in East Africa, now no more. Ethiopia has officially taken over Kenya to become East Africa's biggest economy

Aye Cicero njoo hapa

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest statistical estimates indicate that Ethiopia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow from $61.62 billion in 2015 to $69.21 billion this year, narrowly beating Kenya’s output, which is expected to rise from $63.39 billion to $69.17 billion over the same period.

Ethiopia ina 69.21bn$
Kenya ina 69.17bn$

World bank inasema kenya ina 71.33bn$

Mtaisoma Number kuja na Data Za PPP za 2013 kuanza story na blah blah mingi hatutaki

1486474647880.png
1486474654247.png
1486474658700.png
 
Cicero said:
Good analysis.
By the time the IMF or PwC release such statistics I doubt that they would be so dumb as to consider only the prevailing economic situation. I am sure powerful statistical methods are employed that factor in growth statistics from the past as well.
Also, considering that AfDB and Standard Chartered independently said something also to that effect, i am forced to believe that Tanzania surpassing Kenya is no longer a matter of if but when. Our GDP PPP is already set to surpass Kenya's before 2020 (saiv it is just a heartbeat behind Kenya's) na hiyo nominal GDP ndio tutakimbizana mpaka 2050s or sooner who knows!
Click to expand...

PPP is used to measure cost of living nothing more, hio achana nayo....

lets talk about nominal... 2015 january, IMF predicts Kenyas economy to grow by 6.9%

by june-august 2015, imf lowers that projection to 6%..........

In the beggining of Jan 2016, imf predicts kenya to grow at 7.2%, by june, they revise that figure to 6.8%


you can find all that here: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/IM...rowth-estimate/996-2944246-pg31y9z/index.html


you see, you can use historical data to make predictions or projections, but when it comes to economic growth beyond 5 years, its not an exact science, IMF cant even make an accurate prediction for the next 12 months let alone 30 years.... this is because their are alot of uncontrolled variable which cannot be forseen or acounted for when making statistical models.... some growth can be exponential, you cannot see the impact of certain decisions that will be made tommorow... we could wake up tommorrow and decide there will be no importation of 2nd hand vehicles that have been used beyond 3 years, and next thing you know after three years, we be having a vibrant vehicle manufaturing industry, the multiplier effect of that in the economy could not have been forseen ..

Or tanzania could wake up tommorrow and decide, in order to boost local consumtion and circulation of currency internal,GoT has decides by the end of 7years they will either ban or charge high tax on importation of cars that used petrol or diesel, then they look for investors to build local car manufacturing plants that build vehicles that use onlt LPG (autogas) -no worldbank nor IMF would have seen that comming, your economy will stop depending on petrolium imports, your currency will climb against the dollar, who knows what the effect will be on economic growth????
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar Discussions

Back
Top Bottom
Forums
New posts
Post thread
Back