Mtoa Taarifa
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 21, 2024
- 210
- 659
1. Nigeria 5
2. Sudan 8
3. Cameroon 9
4. DR Congo 13
5. Ethiopia 20
6. Somalia 21
7. Mali 22
8. Kenya 23
9. Sudan Kusini 24
10. Burkina Faso 28
Taasisi ya Takwimu za Matukio ya Mahali Penye Migogoro ya Kijeshi (ACLED) imezitaja Nchi 10 za Afrika zilizokabiliwa na Migogoro iliyosababishwa na Vurugu za Kisiasa ambapo kwa Afrika, nchi ya Nigeria imeongoza huku ikiwa nafasi ya 5 kwa nchi zote duniani.
Nchi za Afrika Mashariki zilizoonekana kusumbuliwa na Vurugu hizo ni DR-Congo (1), Somalia (2), Kenya (3) na Sudan Kusini (4). Aidha, katika orodha hiyo Tanzania imetajwa katika nafasi ya 23 barani Afrika na 63 kwa nchi zote duniani.
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Over 233,000 deaths is a conservative estimate of reported fatalities resulting from these events in the past year.
This is largely due to three very large conflicts beginning or restarting during that time — Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar — coupled with continued violence in many other countries with high rates of conflict — including Sudan, Mexico, Yemen, and Sahel countries, and very few conflicts ending. Civilian exposure to violence, conflict incidents, and the number of armed groups involved in violence are proliferating.
2024 had a 25% increase in political violence events compared to 2023, similar to the average level of increase year-on-year since 2020.
All forms of conflict events have increased.
But bombings now represent over 90,000 events in 2024, are close to double the rate of battles, and triple the rate of direct violence against civilians. As states engage more with challengers domestically and internationally, warfare has become more sophisticated and widespread. Bombing and ‘remote violence’ nearly doubled as of 2022, growing by over 25% per annum since 2022.
Most protests are not included in the Index, but over 143,000 protests occurred in 2024, and major protest movements were linked to pro-Palestine agendas.
In 2024, over 3 billion people across 70 countries went to the polls to vote in national elections, with many more casting their ballots to elect local representatives. Over a third of the countries where a national election was held this year experienced at least one act of electoral violence, affecting authoritarian and unstable states as well as established democracies.
Yet, electoral violence is not overly effective: Election results in countries like India and Senegal — where incumbent governments lost their absolute majority and presidency despite widespread violence — suggest that violence does not stop democratic choice and change.
But the patterns of conflict overall confirm that living in a democracy is not insurance against conflict. Most conflict is not occurring in ‘poor’ or ‘isolated’ autocratic states but in ‘partially free’ countries.
Most conflict is also now occurring in middle-income countries, and it is growing more strongly in middle- and high-income countries. In short, more development and democracy do not constrain violence. Conflict adapts to political circumstances, changing form and direction according to perpetrators’ agendas.
DATA: ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data)
2. Sudan 8
3. Cameroon 9
4. DR Congo 13
5. Ethiopia 20
6. Somalia 21
7. Mali 22
8. Kenya 23
9. Sudan Kusini 24
10. Burkina Faso 28
Taasisi ya Takwimu za Matukio ya Mahali Penye Migogoro ya Kijeshi (ACLED) imezitaja Nchi 10 za Afrika zilizokabiliwa na Migogoro iliyosababishwa na Vurugu za Kisiasa ambapo kwa Afrika, nchi ya Nigeria imeongoza huku ikiwa nafasi ya 5 kwa nchi zote duniani.
Nchi za Afrika Mashariki zilizoonekana kusumbuliwa na Vurugu hizo ni DR-Congo (1), Somalia (2), Kenya (3) na Sudan Kusini (4). Aidha, katika orodha hiyo Tanzania imetajwa katika nafasi ya 23 barani Afrika na 63 kwa nchi zote duniani.
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How much conflict is occurring in the world?
In the past five years, conflict levels have almost doubled. For 2020, we recorded 104,371 conflict events; this year, for the same period, nearly 200,000.Over 233,000 deaths is a conservative estimate of reported fatalities resulting from these events in the past year.
This is largely due to three very large conflicts beginning or restarting during that time — Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar — coupled with continued violence in many other countries with high rates of conflict — including Sudan, Mexico, Yemen, and Sahel countries, and very few conflicts ending. Civilian exposure to violence, conflict incidents, and the number of armed groups involved in violence are proliferating.
2024 had a 25% increase in political violence events compared to 2023, similar to the average level of increase year-on-year since 2020.
All forms of conflict events have increased.
But bombings now represent over 90,000 events in 2024, are close to double the rate of battles, and triple the rate of direct violence against civilians. As states engage more with challengers domestically and internationally, warfare has become more sophisticated and widespread. Bombing and ‘remote violence’ nearly doubled as of 2022, growing by over 25% per annum since 2022.
Most protests are not included in the Index, but over 143,000 protests occurred in 2024, and major protest movements were linked to pro-Palestine agendas.
In 2024, over 3 billion people across 70 countries went to the polls to vote in national elections, with many more casting their ballots to elect local representatives. Over a third of the countries where a national election was held this year experienced at least one act of electoral violence, affecting authoritarian and unstable states as well as established democracies.
Did the countries with elections experience a notable increase in conflict rates?
Generally, yes: Countries with elections in 2024 had — on average— a 63% increase in national political violence compared to over 21% increases across countries without elections. Increases in violence occur when governments or political opposition groups are willing to use violence to remain in power or seize it when they believe that the vote has been rigged. Political interests then arm militias and mobilize their supporters well before election day. Post-election, countries often return to their pre-election disorder rate.Yet, electoral violence is not overly effective: Election results in countries like India and Senegal — where incumbent governments lost their absolute majority and presidency despite widespread violence — suggest that violence does not stop democratic choice and change.
But the patterns of conflict overall confirm that living in a democracy is not insurance against conflict. Most conflict is not occurring in ‘poor’ or ‘isolated’ autocratic states but in ‘partially free’ countries.
Most conflict is also now occurring in middle-income countries, and it is growing more strongly in middle- and high-income countries. In short, more development and democracy do not constrain violence. Conflict adapts to political circumstances, changing form and direction according to perpetrators’ agendas.
DATA: ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data)
