outlook
Member
- Dec 23, 2014
- 15
- 8
To determine whether coffee or potatoes are more profitable per acre in Tanzania based on a one-year output, assuming the farms receive the best services (optimal inputs, management, and market access), we need to compare their yields, costs, and revenues. Since I don’t have exact 2025 data for both crops under identical "best services" conditions, I’ll use the most recent available data and trends, adjusting for optimal scenarios, and make reasonable assumptions. Let’s break it down step-by-step for a Tanzanian context as of March 7, 2025.
Coffee in Tanzania
Yield (Best Case)
Potatoes in Tanzania
Yield (Best Case)
Comparison
Key Considerations
Coffee in Tanzania
Yield (Best Case)
- Recent Data: The USDA forecasts Tanzania’s coffee production for 2024/25 at 1.5 million 60-kg bags from 265,000 hectares (about 652,397 acres). That’s an average of 2.3 bags per acre (138 kg/acre). This reflects mixed smallholder and estate farming with varying inputs.
- Best Services: With optimal conditions—improved seedlings (e.g., Tanzania Coffee Board’s 25 million seedling program by 2025), irrigation, fertilizers, and pest control—yields could reach estate-level outputs. Large estates in Tanzania can produce 500-750 kg/acre (8-12 bags). Let’s assume 600 kg/acre (10 bags) as a realistic "best case" for a smallholder with top-tier services.
- Export Price: In 2021, coffee export prices averaged $2.31/kg. Assuming a slight increase due to global demand and quality improvements by 2025, let’s estimate $2.50/kg wholesale. Retail or farmgate prices might be lower (e.g., $1.70-$2.00/kg), but with "best services," farmers could access premium markets or direct exports, so we’ll use $2.50/kg.
- Revenue: 600 kg/acre × $2.50/kg = $1,500/acre.
- Inputs: Certified seedlings (~$50/acre initial cost, amortized over years), fertilizers ($100/acre), pesticides ($50/acre), irrigation setup ($200/acre initial, $50/acre annual maintenance), labor (pruning, harvesting, processing at $200/acre with family labor supplemented).
- Total Annual Cost: ~$400-$500/acre, assuming some infrastructure is already in place. Let’s use $450/acre.
- Net Profit: $1,500 - $450 = $1,050/acre.
Potatoes in Tanzania
Yield (Best Case)
- Recent Data: FAO 2022 data shows Tanzania’s potato yield at 8.43 tonnes/ha (3.41 tonnes/acre or 3,410 kg/acre), the highest in East Africa. This is an average across regions like Mbeya and Njombe.
- Best Services: With certified seeds, optimal fertilizers, irrigation, and pest control (e.g., via SAGCOT’s Strategic Potato Partnership), yields can hit 20 tonnes/acre (20,000 kg/acre), as reported by some farmers in SAGCOT areas (e.g., 200 bags of 100 kg each). Let’s assume 15,000 kg/acre (15 tonnes/acre) as a conservative "best case" to account for variability.
- Market Price: Potato prices fluctuate widely. In Kenya (a comparable market), prices range from $0.35-$0.45/kg ($350-$450/tonne). In Tanzania, wholesale prices might be similar, but with "best services" and access to urban markets (e.g., Dar es Salaam), let’s assume $0.40/kg ($400/tonne).
- Revenue: 15,000 kg/acre × $0.40/kg = $6,000/acre.
- Inputs: Certified seeds ($300/acre for 1,500 kg at $0.20/kg), fertilizers ($150/acre), pesticides/fungicides ($100/acre for late blight control), irrigation ($100/acre annual), labor (planting, weeding, harvesting at $250/acre with mechanization).
- Total Annual Cost: ~$900-$1,000/acre. Let’s use $950/acre.
- Net Profit: $6,000 - $950 = $5,050/acre.
Comparison
- Coffee: Net profit = $1,050/acre.
- Potatoes: Net profit = $5,050/acre.
- Ratio: Potatoes are ~4.8 times more profitable than coffee per acre under these assumptions.
Key Considerations
- Timeframe: Coffee is perennial (takes 3-5 years to mature, then produces annually for 20+ years), while potatoes are annual (90-120 days per crop). With irrigation, potatoes could yield 2-3 times a year, potentially tripling the $5,050 to $15,150/acre annually, though costs would also rise. Coffee’s profit is steady but lower per year.
- Market Stability: Coffee has a global export market with more predictable pricing, while potatoes depend on local demand and can crash with oversupply (e.g., Tanzania exports little compared to Kenya).
- Risk: Coffee faces pests (coffee berry disease) and price volatility but is less labor-intensive annually. Potatoes are prone to late blight and require intensive management, though "best services" mitigate this.
- Land Use: Coffee suits Tanzania’s highlands (e.g., Kilimanjaro), while potatoes thrive in SAGCOT regions (Mbeya). Location matters.
