RUCCI
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 6, 2011
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Shirika moja la kimataifa limesema ushindi wa Donald Trump unachukuliwa kuwa miongoni mwa hatari 10 kuu zaidi zinazokabili dunia.
Shirika hilo la Economist Intelligence Unit linaonya kuwa iwapo Bw Trump atashinda urais Marekani, hilo huenda likavuruga uchumi wa dunia na kuongeza hatari za kisiasa na kiusalama dhidi ya Marekani.
Hata hivyo, shirika hilo halimtarajii Trump, anayeongoza kwenye kinyang’anyiro cha kumchagua atakayepeperusha bendera ya chama cha Republican, kumshinda Hillary Clinton ambaye shirika hilo linasema "ana uwezekano mkubwa sana kuwa mgombea wa chama cha Democratic".
Ushindi wa Trump unaorodheshwa kuwa hatari zaidi kwa dunia kushinda hata Uingereza kuondoka kutoka kwa Umoja wa Ulaya au hata makabiliano ya kivita katika bahari ya South China Sea.
Kuyumba kwa uchumi wa Uchina au Urusi kuingilia kivita Ukraine na Syria na kusababisha “vita baridi” vipya ni miongoni mwa mambo ambayo yanachukuliwa kuwa hatari zaidi ya ushindi wa Trump.
"Kufikia sasa, Trump ametoa maelezo machache sana kuhusu sera zake, na huwa anabadilisha sana msimamo wake,” EIU wanasema kwenye ripoti yao ya utathmini wa hatari zinazokabili dunia.
Utathmini huo huangazia pia athari za jambo fulani na uwezekano wa jambo hilo kutokea.
EIU hutumia kipimo cha moja hadi 25, na Bw Trump ana alama 12, sawa na hatari ya "kuongezeka kwa ugaidi wa kijihadi kuathiri uchumi wa dunia”.
"Amekuwa na msimamo mkali sana dhidi ya biashara huria, pamoja na Nafta, na ameituhumu Uchina mara nyingi kuwa taifa linalofanyia mchezo sarafu,” EIU inasema.
Shirika hilo limeonya kuwa matamshi yake makali dhidi ya Mexico na Uchina hasa yanaweza kusababisha vita vya kibiashara.
Trump amependekeza ujengwe ukuta kati ya Marekani na Mexico kuzuia wahamiaji na pia ametetea kuuawa kwa jamaa za magaidi. Aidha, amependekeza kuvamiwa kwa Syria ili kuangamiza kundi la Islamic State.
EIU wanasema pendekezo msimamo wake kuhusu mzozo Mashariki ya Kati pamoja na pendekezo kwamba Waislamu wazuiwe kuingia Marekani vinaweza kutumiwa na makundi ya itikadi kali za Kiislamu kuwatafuta wafuasi zaidi.
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A British research organization has warned that a Donald Trump presidency could have a dangerous impact on the world economy, increasing the potential of Islamic terror attacks and of a trade war with Mexico and China.
The Economist Intelligence Unit released its updated global risk assessment, ranking the election of Trump a 12 on a scale of one to 25 — the same number it assigned to the possibility that jihadi terrorism would destabilize the global economy.
The firm pointed to a number of reasons, including Trump's hostility toward free trade, his accusing China of being a "currency manipulator, his advocating the killing of terrorists' families, and his proposal to move troops into Syria to fight ISIS and take its oil.
This appeared to be the first time the EIU had rated a presidential candidate's election as a global risk, the firm told Politico.
"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond," the EIU said.
The organization ranks risks by impact and probability. A Trump presidency bore high impact, but moderate probability, the EIU said.
"Although we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn," the authors wrote.
Trump also will likely face stiff opposition in Congress, both from Democrats and Republicans, the EIU said.
That "internal bickering," however, could weaken the country's policymaking, the firm said.
Other global threats on the list included a "sharp economic slowdown in China," a collapse of investment in the oil sector, the break up of the European Union, the further rise of jihadi terrorism, and Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria leading to "a new 'cold war.'"
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Also Wednesday, the Washington Post editorial board called for the Republican Party to aim for as brokered convention to prevent a Trump nomination, arguing that Trump "presents a threat to American democracy."
"Mr. Trump resembles other strongmen throughout history who have achieved power by manipulating democratic processes," the editorial board wrote. "Their playbook includes a casual embrace of violence; a willingness to wield government powers against personal enemies; contempt for a free press; demonization of anyone who is not white and Christian; intimations of dark conspiracies; and the propagation of sweeping, ugly lies."
Source: NBC News
Shirika hilo la Economist Intelligence Unit linaonya kuwa iwapo Bw Trump atashinda urais Marekani, hilo huenda likavuruga uchumi wa dunia na kuongeza hatari za kisiasa na kiusalama dhidi ya Marekani.
Hata hivyo, shirika hilo halimtarajii Trump, anayeongoza kwenye kinyang’anyiro cha kumchagua atakayepeperusha bendera ya chama cha Republican, kumshinda Hillary Clinton ambaye shirika hilo linasema "ana uwezekano mkubwa sana kuwa mgombea wa chama cha Democratic".
Ushindi wa Trump unaorodheshwa kuwa hatari zaidi kwa dunia kushinda hata Uingereza kuondoka kutoka kwa Umoja wa Ulaya au hata makabiliano ya kivita katika bahari ya South China Sea.
Kuyumba kwa uchumi wa Uchina au Urusi kuingilia kivita Ukraine na Syria na kusababisha “vita baridi” vipya ni miongoni mwa mambo ambayo yanachukuliwa kuwa hatari zaidi ya ushindi wa Trump.
"Kufikia sasa, Trump ametoa maelezo machache sana kuhusu sera zake, na huwa anabadilisha sana msimamo wake,” EIU wanasema kwenye ripoti yao ya utathmini wa hatari zinazokabili dunia.
Utathmini huo huangazia pia athari za jambo fulani na uwezekano wa jambo hilo kutokea.
EIU hutumia kipimo cha moja hadi 25, na Bw Trump ana alama 12, sawa na hatari ya "kuongezeka kwa ugaidi wa kijihadi kuathiri uchumi wa dunia”.
"Amekuwa na msimamo mkali sana dhidi ya biashara huria, pamoja na Nafta, na ameituhumu Uchina mara nyingi kuwa taifa linalofanyia mchezo sarafu,” EIU inasema.
Shirika hilo limeonya kuwa matamshi yake makali dhidi ya Mexico na Uchina hasa yanaweza kusababisha vita vya kibiashara.
Trump amependekeza ujengwe ukuta kati ya Marekani na Mexico kuzuia wahamiaji na pia ametetea kuuawa kwa jamaa za magaidi. Aidha, amependekeza kuvamiwa kwa Syria ili kuangamiza kundi la Islamic State.
EIU wanasema pendekezo msimamo wake kuhusu mzozo Mashariki ya Kati pamoja na pendekezo kwamba Waislamu wazuiwe kuingia Marekani vinaweza kutumiwa na makundi ya itikadi kali za Kiislamu kuwatafuta wafuasi zaidi.
======================
A British research organization has warned that a Donald Trump presidency could have a dangerous impact on the world economy, increasing the potential of Islamic terror attacks and of a trade war with Mexico and China.
The Economist Intelligence Unit released its updated global risk assessment, ranking the election of Trump a 12 on a scale of one to 25 — the same number it assigned to the possibility that jihadi terrorism would destabilize the global economy.
The firm pointed to a number of reasons, including Trump's hostility toward free trade, his accusing China of being a "currency manipulator, his advocating the killing of terrorists' families, and his proposal to move troops into Syria to fight ISIS and take its oil.
This appeared to be the first time the EIU had rated a presidential candidate's election as a global risk, the firm told Politico.
"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond," the EIU said.
The organization ranks risks by impact and probability. A Trump presidency bore high impact, but moderate probability, the EIU said.
"Although we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn," the authors wrote.
Trump also will likely face stiff opposition in Congress, both from Democrats and Republicans, the EIU said.
That "internal bickering," however, could weaken the country's policymaking, the firm said.
Other global threats on the list included a "sharp economic slowdown in China," a collapse of investment in the oil sector, the break up of the European Union, the further rise of jihadi terrorism, and Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria leading to "a new 'cold war.'"
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Also Wednesday, the Washington Post editorial board called for the Republican Party to aim for as brokered convention to prevent a Trump nomination, arguing that Trump "presents a threat to American democracy."
"Mr. Trump resembles other strongmen throughout history who have achieved power by manipulating democratic processes," the editorial board wrote. "Their playbook includes a casual embrace of violence; a willingness to wield government powers against personal enemies; contempt for a free press; demonization of anyone who is not white and Christian; intimations of dark conspiracies; and the propagation of sweeping, ugly lies."
Source: NBC News