COMPARE & CONTRAST: Turkish vs Chinese Infrastructure (SGR) loan to Tanzania

Boss geografia ulisoma????
Boss unaendaje huko drc bila kupita rwanda au burundi??????
Aisee kumbe hauna unachokijua kwenda Congo DRC lazima upite Rwanda au Burundi? unapita Zambia kwa bara bara ya Ndola Kitwe unaingia border unautafuta mji wao Kinshasa sema maeneo ya juu ni rahisi kupitia Rwanda na Burundi maana DRC ni kubwa imepakana na Nchi nyingi...
 
Katika maendeleo,ili uweze kufanyikiwa LAZIMA risk iwepo.
Maelezo yako pamoja na uzuri wake,Yana ukakasi want kupinga,na kuona mradi hauna manufaa kea taifa.
Mimi naanzia na historia Wajerumani ambako walijenga reli ya Kwanza kabisa Tanganyika waliielekeza Kigoma walilenga Nini?
Western countries waliombwa msaada wa kujenga reli ya tazara walikataa waliogopa Nini?
Leo mnatuaminisha kuwa mizigo mingi inatoka Zambia na DRC,lakini tazara haifanyi vizuri kwa Nini?
Tukubali,from economic point of view,political or otherwise hizi reli zilipaswa na zitaendelea kupaswa kujengwa,as the country moves on.
 
Ujenzi wa reli ni muhimu kiuchumi ila uwazi katika mradi/miradi unatakiwa sana; haiwezekani kitu cha Tshs.100/= tunaambiwa Tshs.150+ hapo ndiyo utata wa hii miradi kuonekana ni vimeo na haulipi ukiongezea na dosari nyingine zinazotokana na maamuzi ya kiuchumi/kiufundi kufanywa kisiasa bila kujali professional za watu wanaohusika kwenye fani husika.
 
Aisee kumbe hauna unachokijua kwenda Congo DRC lazima upite Rwanda au Burundi? unapita Zambia kwa bara bara ya Ndola Kitwe unaingia border unautafuta mji wao Kinshasa sema maeneo ya juu ni rahisi kupitia Rwanda na Burundi maana DRC ni kubwa imepakana na Nchi nyingi...
Nilikuwa nakusubiri ujibu hivyo,sasa reli unaipitisha kivipi huko zambia????wakati kuna tazara????
 
Inasemaje hiyo Geography yako Wacongo wanatengeneza daraja upande wa Sumbawanga likiisha magari mengi yatapita kule ili kuondoa usumbufu wa malipo makubwa kwa Wazambia kwa kila Roli linalopita Zambia...usipotembea kila kitu unakiona kigumu na hakiwezekani...Rwanda anachukua mafuta kutoka bandari ya Mombasa na kupitia Uganda huko border ya kadona angalia huo mzunguko...
Kwahiyo unatengeneza daraja ziwa tanganyika au wapi???sababu tz na drc hatupakani ardhini boss,stori za kijiweni hizo!!!!!
 
Inasemaje hiyo Geography yako Wacongo wanatengeneza daraja upande wa Sumbawanga likiisha magari mengi yatapita kule ili kuondoa usumbufu wa malipo makubwa kwa Wazambia kwa kila Roli linalopita Zambia...usipotembea kila kitu unakiona kigumu na hakiwezekani...Rwanda anachukua mafuta kutoka bandari ya Mombasa na kupitia Uganda huko border ya kadona angalia huo mzunguko...
Itaku
Aisee kumbe hauna unachokijua kwenda Congo DRC lazima upite Rwanda au Burundi? unapita Zambia kwa bara bara ya Ndola Kitwe unaingia border unautafuta mji wao Kinshasa sema maeneo ya juu ni rahisi kupitia Rwanda na Burundi maana DRC ni kubwa imepakana na Nchi nyingi...
Unazungumza kama umefika vile!!!??ukipita zambia utafika lubumbashi but huwezi fika kinshasa labda na landrover hamna njia wao wanategemea reli kidogo na ndege.na kutoka kasumbalesa border(zambia na drc) lami inaishia kms 330 kunaitwa kolwezi
 
Inasemaje hiyo Geography yako Wacongo wanatengeneza daraja upande wa Sumbawanga likiisha magari mengi yatapita kule ili kuondoa usumbufu wa malipo makubwa kwa Wazambia kwa kila Roli linalopita Zambia...usipotembea kila kitu unakiona kigumu na hakiwezekani...Rwanda anachukua mafuta kutoka bandari ya Mombasa na kupitia Uganda huko border ya kadona angalia huo mzunguko...
UWONGO!!!!!????
 
SGR-III.jpg


Kila mwana JF na hasa kwenye hill jukwaa la siasa kufight back against TROLLS from BAVICHA na UVCCM ambao wanakuja hapa na kutuletea threads ambazo hazina tija kwa maendeleo ya hii nchi

Sasa turudi kwenye hii ya SGR na naomba tusaidiane kuchambua huu mradi in out na wengine tutaleta supporting docs from 3rd sources ku support arguments zetu.

Sisi kama members wa Jamiiforums tunawakilisha mawazo ya watanzania zaidi ya milioni 50 na hii imekuwa ikituweka kwenye nafasi ngumu mpaka makamanda wetu sasa hivi wamewekwa ndani na wana pay the price kwa kudiriki kutupatia uhuru wa kutumia hii platform

In the wake Gas projects kama ya Mtwara -Dar, upanuzi wa Bandari ya Dar, Bandari ya Bagamoyo na bila kusahau sasa hivi TANESCO wanawalipa kampuni ya Richmond (na watt wake) shilling milioni 400 per day za walalahoi so its rightly for us to be suspicious of any large infrastructure project proposed by our ruing elites. Silly because of USIRI nd bitter experience of money being "eaten", cost overruns, and white elephants kama ya akina Mtwara Gas n.k

In addition, kuna maswali ambayo lazima tuweke wazi na tunaweza kutumia figures za USD na TSH lakini kunaweza kukawepo mabadiiko as we go along.

Pili kuna generic info ambazo zinaweza kuwa mwongozo wetu kwenye haya mambo:


PROJECT:

Hii project ni kwa ajili ya capacity to finance, design, construct, operate and maintain the proposed 1661km kutoka Dar Es Salaam-Isaka-Kigali/Keza-Musongati (DIIKM) kwa njia ya public-private partnership (PPP).

PROJECT DIVERS

Ma Propagandists wetu (wanasiasa) wamekuwa wakisema the obvious stuff kuwa huu mradi utatufanya tutimize ile Tanzania Vision 2025 (ambayo kwa kiasi kikubwa haiendani na zama tulizo nazo), MKUKUTA etc. Kingine ni Paul Kagame Factor (huyu jamaa ametupatia challenge kubwa ili kutimiza ile ndoto ya kutumia Bandari ya Dar etc). Kingpin ni kupunguza hizo costs za transportation (hii of course inaingilia Cartel ya wanasiasa na ruling elites ambao wana biashara za malori), and the other usual stuff kama kuifanya TZ kuwa ni attractoive for DFI's na kupunguza tariffs per tone-km. Ohh how can I forget kuwa Mr Infrastructure hataki baranara zake ziharibiwe na malori na bila kusahau sera ya Viwanda itakuwa raihisi kutekelezeka....

RELI YA ZAMANI:

Hii project ni mchanganyiko : Kwanza ni kufanya upgrading to the existing 970km narrow-gauge railway from Dar es Salaam to Isaka na ya pili ni construction of a brand new 494km extension to Kigali and a 197km branch from Keza in northwest Tanzania to Musongati in Burundi.

USAGE:

The line will be built primarily for freight trains with a 32.4 tonne axle load proposed although some passenger services will be available (hivyo hapa nadhani manelewa why wanasiasa na matajiri wenye malori wanafanya kila jitihada ku sabotage hii project)

FEASIBILITY STUDY:

mwaka 2014 kampuni makubwa ya reli kama Canarail na Gibb Africa ilifanya (wali update) feasibility study iliyofanywa mwaka 2009 na kampuni ya DB International and BNSF ambazo kwa kiwango kikubwa walihimiza na kusisitiza kuwa serikali yetu inaweza optimize alignments to reduce capital expenditure (na hapa ndiko wapiti dili walikasirika kwani kuna mapesa yako at stake). Hali kadhalika FS report ya CR&GA ilisema kuwa kuna huge potential traffic for the line, kwani hii reli itabeba mizigo ya tani million 10 kwa mwaka ikifika mkwaka na itaendelea mpaka tani milioni 30 ikifika mwaka 2050


SCOPE OF THE WORK

(Nitaleta taarifa zaidi kuhusu hii baadae)

CHALLENGES
Tumeambiwa kuwa kuna challenges nyingi sana kujenga hii reli kama vile ragged terrain ambazo zitakuwa mitigated by long viaducts (hawakuwa specific on how many kilometres), passages kwa wanyama kwenye mbuga nk Pia waliangalia barabara (za zamani na mpya) na pia kuna hao watu wa OSHA nao wanasisitiza kazi ifanywe kwa kuzingatia uslama na afya za wafanyakazi hivyo kutakuwepo kwa senyenge kwenye baadhi ya maeneo kuzuia wanyama nk. Pia kwa kuwa itajengwa kwa standards za kisasa ina maana kutahitajika kuchukua ardhi kubwa zaidi baadhi ya maeneo na itabidi watu walipwe...na hii inaweza kuleta construction delays. Hali kadhalika kutahitajika stations nyingi along the way na bila kusahau mamba ya umeme, maji na vifaa kadhaa wa kadhaa. Pia tusisahau mambo ya locomotives na hizo rolling stock

OPERATIONAL STATS ( data incomplete)


Operational expectations na stats ni estimates lakini list haiku exhaustive hivyo nitajaza kadri muda unavyozidi kwenda.

Load per freight train-4,000 and
Load per passenger train-2,000 passengers
Number of passenger trains-/6 day initially
Average speed freight trains-80 km/hour (?)
Average speed passenger trains-120 km/h (?)
Line capacity-10 million tones/annum
Infrastructure cost (?? )-USD (?)million/km of track (utata mkubwa uko hapa)
Total cost of turnkey project- $7.2 billion (including civil works, facilities, locomotives and rolling stock)

FINANCIALS:

Kifedha serikali ya awamu iliyopita na hii ziko hoi bin taaban, Ndio maana tukalipishwa pesa na TPA/TRA kwa kila bidhaa inayoingia nchini kuchangia ujenzi wa reli na bado tukakwama ndio tukaamua kupeleka kwa Multilateral agencies kama World Bank na Africa Development Bank na bila kusahau Mwakyembe aliened kuongea na Commercial Banks za nje watukopeshe pesa tujenge hii reli.

Option nyingine ilikuwa kwenda kwenye CASH POINT aka BEIJING wa wachina na huu ulikuwa ni ushauri kwa JK kuwa Wa China ni ndugu zetu hivyo tungepewa pesa via EXIM BANK under government-to-government (G2G) arrangement. Pia kipindi kile kulikuwa na mapesa mengi ya miaka 3-5 toka PRC kwa nchi za Africa kupitia mpango wa Forum on China – Africa Corporation (FOCAC) na nakumbuka mwaka jana Makamo wa Rais bibi Samia Suluhu alituwakilisha kwenye mkutano wa FOCAC uliofanyika South Africa.

Basically PRC walitenga kiasi cha USD 20 billion, ambayo ni mapesa ya FOCAC kati ya mwaka 2012 – 2015 kwa jili mikopo kwa nchi za Africa ili ku support baadhi ya miradi ambayo in principle kampuni za kichina (makampuni karibuni yote yao ni ya serikali au ya jeshi lao) kama hao akina CRJE etc wapewe contract kwa njia ya EPC huku Africa na Tanzania ilikuwa ni mmojawapo wa hizo nchi.

Nikirudi nyumba kidogo... mwaka 2014 tuliambiwa na aliyekuwa waziri wa Fedha chini ya serikali ya JK bibi SAADA MKUYA alisema kuwa huu MRADI UTAHITAJI DOLA BILLION 14.2 .

Source:
UPDATE 2-Tanzania to spend $14 bln on railways, eyes regional hub status


Serikali ika introduce import tax kwa jail ya huu mradi pasipo kuwaambia wananchi detailed info on the project na financials na hasa kiasi gani kishapatikana kwenye hiyo kodi toka ilipokuwa introduced . Baada ya hapo kama kawaida yetu yakatokea mazingaombwe ya kila namna yakiongozwa na wapiti dili wakubwa Tanzania (Mawaziri na Wabunge na vijikampuni vyao ambavyo vilikuwa vinawania vipewe subcontracts za kila namna wakati hata hizo pesa za kufanya hiyo project hazijapatikana

Alipoingia Rais Magufuli akapiga chini zile estimate za serikali ya JK za DOLA BILLION 14 na sasa the actual tag ni DOLA BILLION 7.6 sasa hatujaelezwa imewezekana vipi pesa zikapungua kiasi hiko? na zile dola billion 7 za mwanzo ilikuwa ziende kwenye mifuko ya nana?

CHINA Export Import Bank (EXIM BANK) -Kwenye hii tafuteni threads za member mwenzetu PASCO. Alianzisha several threads kadhaa zinazoelezea mikopo hii ya kachina na uhuni unaofanyika

Kumekuwepo kwa propaganda kuwa Tanzania inapt msaada/aid toka bank ya EXIM bank yaChina. Ukweli ni kuwa HATUPATI na HATUJAPATA msaada isipokuwa serikali yetu tukufu iilikuwa ina mango wa kuomba MKOPO wenye riba ya bei nafuu toka serikali ya China. There is actually no aid offered, japokuwa (based on nyaraka zilizopo ) ni kuwa serikali yetu tukufu imekuwa iki lobby tupewe preferential export credit of $ 5 billion ambayo balozi wa china hapa Dar, na every tom dick and harry aliopo sirikali amekuwa akijibu akiiulizwa kuhusu financing the SRG railway. Baada ya malalamiko ndio ikaamuliwa kuwa tutafute pesa za mkopo toka kwa mashirika ya fed ya kimataifa na baadhi ya nchi ili tuufanye huu mradi.

Taarifa ambazo wanataka kuzificha japo wenyewe wamekuwa kimbelembele kila siku ku preach ammabo ya OPEN GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIP (OGP) ili kuweka wazi taarifa za matumizi ya pesa za serikali kwenye mitandao yao. Sasa kama hawataki TRANSPARENCY itabidi wajiulize inawezekana vipi sie watu wa Kimara tunazo taarifa za huu mkopo?

Anyway,

As it stands ni kuwa total cost of the project is USD 7.6 billion. Na loan iliyoombwa from EXIM Bank (80-85 %) lakini hawakufikia makubaliano ni percentage ngapi ndio maana ikaletwa hoja ya kuwatisha jmamcho kufumba kuwa hata hata watu wa UBATANI (Uturuki) na wengine wanaweza kutupatia loan kwa favourable terms.

Initially ile loan toka kwa EXIM BANK (ambayo bado hawakukubaliana) ingegawanyika into 2 parts:

1.Ingekuwa ni concessional loan na ingekuwa na 2 % interest per annum with a grace period 7-10 years. The repayment period is ni between 20-25 years.

2. Ingekuwa ni commercial loan na LIBOR + 360 base point interest per annum na grace period ingekuwa not less than 5 years with a repayment period of around 10 years.

Tusisahau kuwa kuna element ya insurance ya hiyo commercial loan ambayo ingekuwa almost 7% ya thamani ya huo mkopo na ingelipwa kwa 3 au 4 annual instalments. Ohhh kitu kingpin ni kuwa interest payment katika kipindi hicho cha grace period ingekuwa covered na Sirikali yetu Tukufu kupitia hizo budgetary allocations na yale mapesa tunayotozwa kuingiza mizigo ndani ya nchi. Katika plans zao walitaka kuwa repayments ziwe covered na mapesa yatakayopatikana kwenye operations za hii reli. Bila kusahau kuwa serikali ingesaidia kugenerate traffic na kazi kwenye hii reli (marufuku ya malori barararani na kushawishi nchi jirani watumie hii reli kusafirisha mizigo yao) ili serikali ipate revenues ku cover operations na loans/interest payments tunazodaiwa

Kuna jambo nilisahau kuwa Sovereign Guarantee ambayo ni ngumu kupata kuliko jasho la mbu ingetoka tuu (zipo threads humu JF zinazoulizia kwa nini Tanzania haya mambo ya kutoa SG hayajawekwa wazi na nani ana mamlaka ya kuongeza debt limit ya serikali)

WANACHOTAKA EXIM BANK TOKA KWETU

Wichita (EXIM BANK) wao kama kawaida ya mkopaji yoyote yule mwenye nia ya kurudishiwa pesa zake na faida juu hakuna cha bure bure, masharti yao sio siri wanataka yafuatayo toka kwetu:

1. Construction Standards ziwe za kwao China/Chinese standards

2. Operator wa hii reli lazima awe familiar na lender (in this case itakuwa hao hao Wachina)

3. Insurance lazima ifanywe na kampuni yao sinosure na habari zao zinapatikana hapa:
http://www.sinosure.com.cn/sinosure/english/English.html

4. Baada ya ujenzi serikali lazima iguarantee traffic ili mradi we na faida

5. Escrow account itafunguliwa na itakuwa operated jointly kati ya serikali na EXIM Bank na proposed scheduled charges zitakuwa kama ifuatavyo:

a) ya kwanza itakuwa ya operations
b) ya pili itakuwa ni ya payment ya mikopo na riba (interests)
b) ya tatu na final charge itakuwa kwa jaili ya capital projects.

6.Serikali inategemewa na kutarajiwa kuwa itatoa sovereign guarantee ya huo mkopo

7. Serikali pia toe uhakiki wa pesa za ununua ardhi, kulipa fidia na kuwahamisha wananchi watakao athirika

8. Serikali lazima pia itoe confirmation kuwa wanazo pesa za percentage ya contribution yake (inaweza ikawa 30%,20% au 15%)


DESIGN STANDARDS

(hizi ni estimates tuu kwa sababu kumekuwa na mabadiiko mara kwa mara toka upande wetu)


Gauge-1,435 mm
Design standard-Chinese
Class of railway-Class 1 design, maintenance and operation
Number of tracks-Single initially (civil infrastructure prepared for future doubling)
Length of crossing loops- (?)
Rail-International union of railways (UIC) 60 (60 kg/m)
Switches-Electrically operated
Minimum horizontal curve radius-1,200 meters; difficult sections 900 meters
Minimum vertical curve radius-10,000 meters
Maximum gradient-1.2% (?)
Power type-Diesel initially (kumekuwepo kwa hoja kuwa gesi ipo why tusipige umeme all the way?)
Type of locomotives-Passenger: ( ?)
Loading gauge-Double stack containers and future electrification kwa sababu ya umeme wa gas
Axel load-25 tonnes (minimum)


DR. JOHN POMBE MAGUFULI aka MR INFRASTRUCTURE:

Mheshimiwa Rais by profession ni mpenzi mkubwa sana wa infrastructure projects na sifa yake nyingine kubwa he has an eye for detail and he knows his trade, Hivyo alipopelekewa report ya huu Mradi ni kuwa hakutaka apewe briefing, alijifungia for a whole weekend akasoma detailed reports za feasibility studies, na financial proposals na bila kusahau recommendations from previous administration kuwa kampuni ya CHINA RAIL MATERIALS (CRM) wapewee tenda hiyo.

Tukumbuke kuwa Mheshimiwa anafahamu vizuri tulivyopigwa kwenye mradi wa Utanuzi wa Bandari ya Dar, Ujenzi wa bmba la gesi toka Mtwara na bila kusahau another elephant project ya Bandari ya Bagamoyo. Hivyo alipoona CRM's price for the new railway was "hugely inflated," in addition, the SGR project was hastily delivered to CRM without proper tendering, na kwenye notes zake Mr Infrastructure aliandika kwa the whole thing stinks kwasababu it there was inadequate "front end design" and/or feasibility study before the Chinese were awarded the contract on top of irregularity and side stepping 2004 PPA and its amendments....

MAJIBU YA CHINA RAILS MATERIALS kwa MR INFRASTRUCTURE:


WAPIGA DILI

ROLE YA WANASIASA

LIST YA VIONGOZI WANAOPINGA HUU MRADI

ROLE YA TREASURY NA PLANNING

BUNGE OVERSIGHTS

WHO IS WHO

BEIJING PRESSURE

TURKISH DEIGHT

THE ROTHSCHILDS QUESTION
Nimeshiba, njoo tena
 
Reli ingejengwa kuelekea DRC Congo huko ndio kuna faida ya muda mfupi na mrefu kuliko huko mlikoipeleka sijui Kigali na Burundi hamjaangalia faida sana mmetumia urafiki na hilo swala ndio sumu ya kukua kwa maendeleo ya biashara...angalia magari makubwa tuu sasa hivi yanayopeleka mzigo Congo na huko Rwanda kwa siku wapi kuna idadi kubwa ya magari makubwa ya mizigo...
Vipi ushindani kutoka Angola,tusije achiwa mataruma

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Vipi ushindani kutoka Angola,tusije achiwa mataruma

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Watu wasichokijua ni kwamba tazara inaishia kapirimposhi na imeunganishwa mpaka lubumbashi drc siku nyingi tu ,shida ni upande wa drc imechoka inataka lipea .
Kuhusu angola :
toka enzi izo copper-belt zambia na jimbo la katanga linapaswa kuudumiwa na Lobito Angola ila walisimama 1975 coz ya civil war.
Sasahivi China ilishamaliiza kukarabati toka lobito -luau(border town) kati ya Angola na Drc which is 1,344 kms eneo ambalo linasuasua ni drc which is 770kms from drc Angola border to lubumbashi
 
Katika maendeleo,ili uweze kufanyikiwa LAZIMA risk iwepo.
Maelezo yako pamoja na uzuri wake,Yana ukakasi want kupinga,na kuona mradi hauna manufaa kea taifa.
Mimi naanzia na historia Wajerumani ambako walijenga reli ya Kwanza kabisa Tanganyika waliielekeza Kigoma walilenga Nini?
Western countries waliombwa msaada wa kujenga reli ya tazara walikataa waliogopa Nini?
Leo mnatuaminisha kuwa mizigo mingi inatoka Zambia na DRC,lakini tazara haifanyi vizuri kwa Nini?
Tukubali,from economic point of view,political or otherwise hizi reli zilipaswa na zitaendelea kupaswa kujengwa,as the country moves on.
Naomba nikujibu kama ifuatavyo:
-1.reli ilibidi ifike kigoma coz ni karibu na rwanda na burundi kama koloni la mashariki la mjerumani(Deutsch east africa=(Tanganyika,Rwanda na Urundi)
-2.wazungu walijua ingeongeza mapambano ya ukombozi kusini mwa africa coz walishaibana zambia(northern rhodesia) ikawa haina pa kutokea kama adhabu ya kudai uhuru,east was mozambique (wareno),south was southern rhodesia(zimbabwe) Britsh na west kwa kutokea port was Angola(wareno)kwahiyo kuiokoa zambia option ikawa TZ tu. Na ikabidi Nyerere apambane.
-3.Tazara haifanyi vizuri coz wazambia hawako serious waliokubaliana raisi wa zambia na magu kwenye mkutano wao wa Dar hawajayatekeleza ikiwamo kuwekeza fedha.
NB:hivi nivyokwambia magari ya kupeleka mzigo drc hayatoshi na imefanya bei ipande
 
Ni Engineer. Chemical Engineer to be exact. Labda kutokana na uzi huu, ukisoma Engineer wazo linalokuja ni Civil Engineer kutokana na kwamba kazi yenyewe ni civil in nature.
sio chemical engineer ila ni mwalimu wa chemistry..........


kwaio yeye PHD kasomea mambo ya chemistry pale CONAS na sio engineering mkuu........


kwaio magufuli sio engineer

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SGR-III.jpg


Kila mwana JF na hasa kwenye hill jukwaa la siasa kufight back against TROLLS from BAVICHA na UVCCM ambao wanakuja hapa na kutuletea threads ambazo hazina tija kwa maendeleo ya hii nchi

Sasa turudi kwenye hii ya SGR na naomba tusaidiane kuchambua huu mradi in out na wengine tutaleta supporting docs from 3rd sources ku support arguments zetu.

Sisi kama members wa Jamiiforums tunawakilisha mawazo ya watanzania zaidi ya milioni 50 na hii imekuwa ikituweka kwenye nafasi ngumu mpaka makamanda wetu sasa hivi wamewekwa ndani na wana pay the price kwa kudiriki kutupatia uhuru wa kutumia hii platform

In the wake Gas projects kama ya Mtwara -Dar, upanuzi wa Bandari ya Dar, Bandari ya Bagamoyo na bila kusahau sasa hivi TANESCO wanawalipa kampuni ya Richmond (na watt wake) shilling milioni 400 per day za walalahoi so its rightly for us to be suspicious of any large infrastructure project proposed by our ruing elites. Silly because of USIRI nd bitter experience of money being "eaten", cost overruns, and white elephants kama ya akina Mtwara Gas n.k

In addition, kuna maswali ambayo lazima tuweke wazi na tunaweza kutumia figures za USD na TSH lakini kunaweza kukawepo mabadiiko as we go along.

Pili kuna generic info ambazo zinaweza kuwa mwongozo wetu kwenye haya mambo:


PROJECT:

Hii project ni kwa ajili ya capacity to finance, design, construct, operate and maintain the proposed 1661km kutoka Dar Es Salaam-Isaka-Kigali/Keza-Musongati (DIIKM) kwa njia ya public-private partnership (PPP).

PROJECT DIVERS

Ma Propagandists wetu (wanasiasa) wamekuwa wakisema the obvious stuff kuwa huu mradi utatufanya tutimize ile Tanzania Vision 2025 (ambayo kwa kiasi kikubwa haiendani na zama tulizo nazo), MKUKUTA etc. Kingine ni Paul Kagame Factor (huyu jamaa ametupatia challenge kubwa ili kutimiza ile ndoto ya kutumia Bandari ya Dar etc). Kingpin ni kupunguza hizo costs za transportation (hii of course inaingilia Cartel ya wanasiasa na ruling elites ambao wana biashara za malori), and the other usual stuff kama kuifanya TZ kuwa ni attractoive for DFI's na kupunguza tariffs per tone-km. Ohh how can I forget kuwa Mr Infrastructure hataki baranara zake ziharibiwe na malori na bila kusahau sera ya Viwanda itakuwa raihisi kutekelezeka....

RELI YA ZAMANI:

Hii project ni mchanganyiko : Kwanza ni kufanya upgrading to the existing 970km narrow-gauge railway from Dar es Salaam to Isaka na ya pili ni construction of a brand new 494km extension to Kigali and a 197km branch from Keza in northwest Tanzania to Musongati in Burundi.

USAGE:

The line will be built primarily for freight trains with a 32.4 tonne axle load proposed although some passenger services will be available (hivyo hapa nadhani manelewa why wanasiasa na matajiri wenye malori wanafanya kila jitihada ku sabotage hii project)

FEASIBILITY STUDY:

mwaka 2014 kampuni makubwa ya reli kama Canarail na Gibb Africa ilifanya (wali update) feasibility study iliyofanywa mwaka 2009 na kampuni ya DB International and BNSF ambazo kwa kiwango kikubwa walihimiza na kusisitiza kuwa serikali yetu inaweza optimize alignments to reduce capital expenditure (na hapa ndiko wapiti dili walikasirika kwani kuna mapesa yako at stake). Hali kadhalika FS report ya CR&GA ilisema kuwa kuna huge potential traffic for the line, kwani hii reli itabeba mizigo ya tani million 10 kwa mwaka ikifika mkwaka na itaendelea mpaka tani milioni 30 ikifika mwaka 2050


SCOPE OF THE WORK

(Nitaleta taarifa zaidi kuhusu hii baadae)

CHALLENGES
Tumeambiwa kuwa kuna challenges nyingi sana kujenga hii reli kama vile ragged terrain ambazo zitakuwa mitigated by long viaducts (hawakuwa specific on how many kilometres), passages kwa wanyama kwenye mbuga nk Pia waliangalia barabara (za zamani na mpya) na pia kuna hao watu wa OSHA nao wanasisitiza kazi ifanywe kwa kuzingatia uslama na afya za wafanyakazi hivyo kutakuwepo kwa senyenge kwenye baadhi ya maeneo kuzuia wanyama nk. Pia kwa kuwa itajengwa kwa standards za kisasa ina maana kutahitajika kuchukua ardhi kubwa zaidi baadhi ya maeneo na itabidi watu walipwe...na hii inaweza kuleta construction delays. Hali kadhalika kutahitajika stations nyingi along the way na bila kusahau mamba ya umeme, maji na vifaa kadhaa wa kadhaa. Pia tusisahau mambo ya locomotives na hizo rolling stock

OPERATIONAL STATS ( data incomplete)


Operational expectations na stats ni estimates lakini list haiku exhaustive hivyo nitajaza kadri muda unavyozidi kwenda.

Load per freight train-4,000 and
Load per passenger train-2,000 passengers
Number of passenger trains-/6 day initially
Average speed freight trains-80 km/hour (?)
Average speed passenger trains-120 km/h (?)
Line capacity-10 million tones/annum
Infrastructure cost (?? )-USD (?)million/km of track (utata mkubwa uko hapa)
Total cost of turnkey project- $7.2 billion (including civil works, facilities, locomotives and rolling stock)

FINANCIALS:

Kifedha serikali ya awamu iliyopita na hii ziko hoi bin taaban, Ndio maana tukalipishwa pesa na TPA/TRA kwa kila bidhaa inayoingia nchini kuchangia ujenzi wa reli na bado tukakwama ndio tukaamua kupeleka kwa Multilateral agencies kama World Bank na Africa Development Bank na bila kusahau Mwakyembe aliened kuongea na Commercial Banks za nje watukopeshe pesa tujenge hii reli.

Option nyingine ilikuwa kwenda kwenye CASH POINT aka BEIJING wa wachina na huu ulikuwa ni ushauri kwa JK kuwa Wa China ni ndugu zetu hivyo tungepewa pesa via EXIM BANK under government-to-government (G2G) arrangement. Pia kipindi kile kulikuwa na mapesa mengi ya miaka 3-5 toka PRC kwa nchi za Africa kupitia mpango wa Forum on China – Africa Corporation (FOCAC) na nakumbuka mwaka jana Makamo wa Rais bibi Samia Suluhu alituwakilisha kwenye mkutano wa FOCAC uliofanyika South Africa.

Basically PRC walitenga kiasi cha USD 20 billion, ambayo ni mapesa ya FOCAC kati ya mwaka 2012 – 2015 kwa jili mikopo kwa nchi za Africa ili ku support baadhi ya miradi ambayo in principle kampuni za kichina (makampuni karibuni yote yao ni ya serikali au ya jeshi lao) kama hao akina CRJE etc wapewe contract kwa njia ya EPC huku Africa na Tanzania ilikuwa ni mmojawapo wa hizo nchi.

Nikirudi nyumba kidogo... mwaka 2014 tuliambiwa na aliyekuwa waziri wa Fedha chini ya serikali ya JK bibi SAADA MKUYA alisema kuwa huu MRADI UTAHITAJI DOLA BILLION 14.2 .

Source:
UPDATE 2-Tanzania to spend $14 bln on railways, eyes regional hub status


Serikali ika introduce import tax kwa jail ya huu mradi pasipo kuwaambia wananchi detailed info on the project na financials na hasa kiasi gani kishapatikana kwenye hiyo kodi toka ilipokuwa introduced . Baada ya hapo kama kawaida yetu yakatokea mazingaombwe ya kila namna yakiongozwa na wapiti dili wakubwa Tanzania (Mawaziri na Wabunge na vijikampuni vyao ambavyo vilikuwa vinawania vipewe subcontracts za kila namna wakati hata hizo pesa za kufanya hiyo project hazijapatikana

Alipoingia Rais Magufuli akapiga chini zile estimate za serikali ya JK za DOLA BILLION 14 na sasa the actual tag ni DOLA BILLION 7.6 sasa hatujaelezwa imewezekana vipi pesa zikapungua kiasi hiko? na zile dola billion 7 za mwanzo ilikuwa ziende kwenye mifuko ya nana?

CHINA Export Import Bank (EXIM BANK) -Kwenye hii tafuteni threads za member mwenzetu PASCO. Alianzisha several threads kadhaa zinazoelezea mikopo hii ya kachina na uhuni unaofanyika

Kumekuwepo kwa propaganda kuwa Tanzania inapt msaada/aid toka bank ya EXIM bank yaChina. Ukweli ni kuwa HATUPATI na HATUJAPATA msaada isipokuwa serikali yetu tukufu iilikuwa ina mango wa kuomba MKOPO wenye riba ya bei nafuu toka serikali ya China. There is actually no aid offered, japokuwa (based on nyaraka zilizopo ) ni kuwa serikali yetu tukufu imekuwa iki lobby tupewe preferential export credit of $ 5 billion ambayo balozi wa china hapa Dar, na every tom dick and harry aliopo sirikali amekuwa akijibu akiiulizwa kuhusu financing the SRG railway. Baada ya malalamiko ndio ikaamuliwa kuwa tutafute pesa za mkopo toka kwa mashirika ya fed ya kimataifa na baadhi ya nchi ili tuufanye huu mradi.

Taarifa ambazo wanataka kuzificha japo wenyewe wamekuwa kimbelembele kila siku ku preach ammabo ya OPEN GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIP (OGP) ili kuweka wazi taarifa za matumizi ya pesa za serikali kwenye mitandao yao. Sasa kama hawataki TRANSPARENCY itabidi wajiulize inawezekana vipi sie watu wa Kimara tunazo taarifa za huu mkopo?

Anyway,

As it stands ni kuwa total cost of the project is USD 7.6 billion. Na loan iliyoombwa from EXIM Bank (80-85 %) lakini hawakufikia makubaliano ni percentage ngapi ndio maana ikaletwa hoja ya kuwatisha jmamcho kufumba kuwa hata hata watu wa UBATANI (Uturuki) na wengine wanaweza kutupatia loan kwa favourable terms.

Initially ile loan toka kwa EXIM BANK (ambayo bado hawakukubaliana) ingegawanyika into 2 parts:

1.Ingekuwa ni concessional loan na ingekuwa na 2 % interest per annum with a grace period 7-10 years. The repayment period is ni between 20-25 years.

2. Ingekuwa ni commercial loan na LIBOR + 360 base point interest per annum na grace period ingekuwa not less than 5 years with a repayment period of around 10 years.

Tusisahau kuwa kuna element ya insurance ya hiyo commercial loan ambayo ingekuwa almost 7% ya thamani ya huo mkopo na ingelipwa kwa 3 au 4 annual instalments. Ohhh kitu kingpin ni kuwa interest payment katika kipindi hicho cha grace period ingekuwa covered na Sirikali yetu Tukufu kupitia hizo budgetary allocations na yale mapesa tunayotozwa kuingiza mizigo ndani ya nchi. Katika plans zao walitaka kuwa repayments ziwe covered na mapesa yatakayopatikana kwenye operations za hii reli. Bila kusahau kuwa serikali ingesaidia kugenerate traffic na kazi kwenye hii reli (marufuku ya malori barararani na kushawishi nchi jirani watumie hii reli kusafirisha mizigo yao) ili serikali ipate revenues ku cover operations na loans/interest payments tunazodaiwa

Kuna jambo nilisahau kuwa Sovereign Guarantee ambayo ni ngumu kupata kuliko jasho la mbu ingetoka tuu (zipo threads humu JF zinazoulizia kwa nini Tanzania haya mambo ya kutoa SG hayajawekwa wazi na nani ana mamlaka ya kuongeza debt limit ya serikali)

WANACHOTAKA EXIM BANK TOKA KWETU

Wichita (EXIM BANK) wao kama kawaida ya mkopaji yoyote yule mwenye nia ya kurudishiwa pesa zake na faida juu hakuna cha bure bure, masharti yao sio siri wanataka yafuatayo toka kwetu:

1. Construction Standards ziwe za kwao China/Chinese standards

2. Operator wa hii reli lazima awe familiar na lender (in this case itakuwa hao hao Wachina)

3. Insurance lazima ifanywe na kampuni yao sinosure na habari zao zinapatikana hapa:
http://www.sinosure.com.cn/sinosure/english/English.html

4. Baada ya ujenzi serikali lazima iguarantee traffic ili mradi we na faida

5. Escrow account itafunguliwa na itakuwa operated jointly kati ya serikali na EXIM Bank na proposed scheduled charges zitakuwa kama ifuatavyo:

a) ya kwanza itakuwa ya operations
b) ya pili itakuwa ni ya payment ya mikopo na riba (interests)
b) ya tatu na final charge itakuwa kwa jaili ya capital projects.

6.Serikali inategemewa na kutarajiwa kuwa itatoa sovereign guarantee ya huo mkopo

7. Serikali pia toe uhakiki wa pesa za ununua ardhi, kulipa fidia na kuwahamisha wananchi watakao athirika

8. Serikali lazima pia itoe confirmation kuwa wanazo pesa za percentage ya contribution yake (inaweza ikawa 30%,20% au 15%)


DESIGN STANDARDS

(hizi ni estimates tuu kwa sababu kumekuwa na mabadiiko mara kwa mara toka upande wetu)


Gauge-1,435 mm
Design standard-Chinese
Class of railway-Class 1 design, maintenance and operation
Number of tracks-Single initially (civil infrastructure prepared for future doubling)
Length of crossing loops- (?)
Rail-International union of railways (UIC) 60 (60 kg/m)
Switches-Electrically operated
Minimum horizontal curve radius-1,200 meters; difficult sections 900 meters
Minimum vertical curve radius-10,000 meters
Maximum gradient-1.2% (?)
Power type-Diesel initially (kumekuwepo kwa hoja kuwa gesi ipo why tusipige umeme all the way?)
Type of locomotives-Passenger: ( ?)
Loading gauge-Double stack containers and future electrification kwa sababu ya umeme wa gas
Axel load-25 tonnes (minimum)


DR. JOHN POMBE MAGUFULI aka MR INFRASTRUCTURE:

Mheshimiwa Rais by profession ni mpenzi mkubwa sana wa infrastructure projects na sifa yake nyingine kubwa he has an eye for detail and he knows his trade, Hivyo alipopelekewa report ya huu Mradi ni kuwa hakutaka apewe briefing, alijifungia for a whole weekend akasoma detailed reports za feasibility studies, na financial proposals na bila kusahau recommendations from previous administration kuwa kampuni ya CHINA RAIL MATERIALS (CRM) wapewee tenda hiyo.

Tukumbuke kuwa Mheshimiwa anafahamu vizuri tulivyopigwa kwenye mradi wa Utanuzi wa Bandari ya Dar, Ujenzi wa bmba la gesi toka Mtwara na bila kusahau another elephant project ya Bandari ya Bagamoyo. Hivyo alipoona CRM's price for the new railway was "hugely inflated," in addition, the SGR project was hastily delivered to CRM without proper tendering, na kwenye notes zake Mr Infrastructure aliandika kwa the whole thing stinks kwasababu it there was inadequate "front end design" and/or feasibility study before the Chinese were awarded the contract on top of irregularity and side stepping 2004 PPA and its amendments....

MAJIBU YA CHINA RAILS MATERIALS kwa MR INFRASTRUCTURE:


WAPIGA DILI

ROLE YA WANASIASA

LIST YA VIONGOZI WANAOPINGA HUU MRADI

ROLE YA TREASURY NA PLANNING

BUNGE OVERSIGHTS

WHO IS WHO

BEIJING PRESSURE

TURKISH DEIGHT

THE ROTHSCHILDS QUESTION
Good Job ila next time jitahidi kuhariri taarifa yako ili ieleweke vizuri zaidi

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